Ten Things I Think I Think - SEC Edition
My takeaways from Dallas, with a look-ahead to a college football season that's just one month away
So here’s the deal: I used to want to be a writer. I majored in English at JMU (barely). I thought that I’d grow up and be some sort of hybrid writer/educator. This was 2005. Fast forward nearly 20 years later, and here I am making a living in an industry - audio - that certainly has components of what I thought I’d be doing, just in a very different medium. Instead of typing, I’m talking.
That brings us to what this is. Simply put, just a place to write. The goal is to keep it going throughout the upcoming season (August - April) and see how it goes. Most of it will be sports, but I’m sure we’ll venture off at some point. So now that you have some context on what this is and how we got here, let’s get into it…
We all used to read Peter King’s MMQB when he was with Sports Illustrated. I stole the ‘Ten Things I Think I Think’ headline from him (maybe I’ll come up with something better, but for now it stays). Peter used to have this running list of observations buried within his weekly column. They weren’t official takes, per se. More like leans. That’s where I’m trying to live with this list.
One of the cooler perks of my job is getting to attend SEC Media Days. I get to be there on behalf of the SEC Radio Network and - as a contractual rights-holder with the conference - part of the interview schedule for every team. So this past week in Dallas, that meant 16 head coaches and 48 players were coming into our room to talk ball.
We gather all of the audio for a preview show we do in August (more details on that later), but I can’t help walking away from SECMD with some genuine excitement for the start of the upcoming season. I’m talking real, actual football. As opposed to the seemingly endless chatter about the video game, or the whining about NIL, or the portal turning everyone’s roster into sand art. There’s other places that traffic in that type of football. This is - heading into fall camp when everyone is healthy and undefeated - ten things I think I think about the SEC:
1- Georgia isn’t going anywhere.
Might seem like low-hanging fruit, but it’s worth repeating because for the first time since 2021 these guys aren’t the defending national champs. This is (arguably) the best roster in the sport, and (arguably) the best coaching staff in the sport. Obviously Nick Saban isn’t coaching anymore, so you have to go back to the 2020 Cocktail Party to find a team not named Alabama who beat Kirby and company. Their last two bowl games have been won by an absurd aggregate total of 128-10. This year they play on the road at Bama (Sept 28) and at Texas (Oct 19) but will be favored to win both. It’s a tougher schedule than we’re used to seeing but I don’t think it matters. The Death Star is fully operational in Athens.
2- Oklahoma’s defense > Oklahoma’s offense
I am not a Jackson Arnold hater, let me clarify. This has more to do with the amount of talent already on OU’s defense; a pair of All-Americans in Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman anchoring a unit led by a guy who has successfully changed the culture in Norman from offensive wizardry to defensive intensity. Brent Venables deserves a ton of credit for turning this program around with the quickness. Remember how depressed Oklahoma was when Lincoln Riley left for USC? Those fans were down bad. OU lost twice last year during the regular season - both on the road, by a combined 8 points - and yet nobody is talking about these guys as a legitimate threat at the top of the SEC. I don’t think that bothers Venables one bit. Actually, I know it doesn’t bother him - he said as much during our interview. This team, led by its defense, could be a problem in the SEC. And oh yeah, the offense ain’t bad either.
3- Whoever wins the SEC wins the Heisman
Take a look at this graphic, courtesy of BetMGM:
…There’s 8 SEC quarterbacks on here. I get that it’s just a preseason list, but the oddsmakers are saying whoever lifts the trophy in Atlanta on Dec 7th will be at the front of the line for the Heisman too. I don’t disagree. Somewhere there’s a Brady Cook fan who’s pissed that he’s not on this graphic but I’ve got good news for you…
4- Be ready for double-digit win Missouri
Schedules matter in college football (duh). Missouri is in the unique position of avoiding the best teams in the SEC this year. All of them. No Georgia, no Texas, no LSU, no Ole Miss. Yes, they play in Tuscaloosa. So what? If everyone stays healthy this offense will be fun to watch, led by the league’s best (and maybe the country’s best) WR corps. And while we’re here, I’m giving a shoutout to Nate Noel, a running back transfer from App State, who’s been a joy to watch in the Sun Belt the last few seasons. There are weapons in CoMo and the schedule sets up for Missouri to be a top-10 team for large portions of the season. Don’t shoot the messenger, schedules matter.
5- 9-3 in the SEC is enough to make the CFP
History is going to look back at FSU’s 13-0 season in 2023 and wonder how in the world it ever got left out of the final four. I just don’t know how many perfect seasons we’re going to have left in the future state of this sport (as opposed to, say, the last 100 years when if you weren’t perfect you weren’t sniffing a natty). 9-3 will be enough - if you’re from the right conference - to earn at-large spots in this new and expanded CFP. Big XII and ACC fans don’t want to hear that, but get used to it. Welcome to the future.
6- Under-the-radar QBs at under-the-radar programs
There’s three guys I really like at schools that aren’t going to win the SEC or compete for the playoffs. So let’s talk about them before anyone else does:
Diego Pavia - Vanderbilt - if you didn’t stay up to watch New Mexico State play football last year, I get it. But Pavia was the C-USA Offensive POY and was electric for those of us that could find Aggies games on TV. He’s gritty, tough, and has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. It’s Vanderbilt, so their o/u win total for the season is 3.5 … but man, Pavia is worth tuning in for. Plus head coach Clark Lea brought a bunch of other guys in from Las Cruces along with the QB, including their OC. If nothing else, it will be entertaining. Also, sneaky good game for the ‘Dores week 1 when Virginia Tech comes to town.
Taylen Green - Arkansas - similar to Pavia, a transfer from a league where not a lot of folks stay up and watch. Green was dynamic at Boise State the last two seasons, and this guy is big. Listed at 6’6” he’s not KJ Jefferson big, but Green can turn on the burners. Combine his talent - who apparently was hand-picked in the portal by the Razorbacks’ new OC Bobby Petrino - and there could be something cooking in Fayetteville. Would love to see it because Sam Pittman needs a big season and the SEC needs Sam Pittman.
Brock Vandagriff - Kentucky - unlike the other two guys, we don’t have much of a sample size here. There is considerable hype in Lexington for their new quarterback combining with an already veteran group of wide receivers. I expect UK’s defense to be pretty stout this year, so Vandagriff doesn’t have to be Joe Burrow for this to work out. Kentucky is a better team than Vanderbilt and Arkansas, so the bar for me here is higher than teams coming off 2- and 4-win seasons, respectively. Vandagriff made a business decision to leave Athens and get out of a crowded QB room, let’s see if it pays immediate dividends. Kentucky/South Carolina in week 2 (in Lexington) is a fascinating swing game for both programs.
7- If not now, Ole Miss, when?
Shoutout to my buddy Michael Felder (@inthebleachers) who I’ve had this recurring conversation with on our ‘College Sports Now’ podcast the last couple of years. We’ve seen these doors for college teams come open for a variety of factors (think generational recruiting talent, rival is down, etc.), and some teams just can’t walk through it. North Carolina football comes to mind as a recent one - despite successive NFL QBs in Chapel Hill - who just can’t get it done. Conversely, Michigan finally walked through that door last season and won the school’s first natty since 1997. For me, Ole Miss is the prime ‘if not now, when’ candidate for the SEC this season. Gone are the days when you can’t overcome an early-season loss to Alabama. No more divisions. And, frankly, no more excuses. They’ve never been to the SEC Championship game, sure. But with an expanded CFP you don’t have to be in Atlanta to make the playoffs. Jaxson Dart has elite hair. Can his team have the elite season to back it up? There have been few - if any - better chances in Oxford than this one.
8- August 31 in Gainesville, yikes
If you’re a Florida fan, you simply gotta have this one. An absolute must. And even if you beat Miami you still have to navigate the toughest schedule in the country. A schedule that includes two other land mine non-conference games in your state against UCF and FSU. I’ve legit never seen a tougher schedule in college football than what the Gators have this season. And oh by the way it’s coming on the heels of a combined 11-14 record the last two years. Meanwhile, Miami’s Mario Cristobal is 12-13 during the same span. It’s as seismic a week one game as it gets. And somebody is going wake up September 1 in a deep dark place.
9- Kalen DeBoer is going to be just fine
Is this considered a hot take? Obviously no one in Tuscaloosa wanted to part with the greatest college football coach of the modern era, I get that. But you brought in a guy who is 104-12 in 9 seasons and is coming off a national championship game. You got the best guy on the board. Now you have to let him cook. If Alabama goes 8-4 this year, are people going to freak out? Probably. But put me down for 8 wins not happening. I see more like 9 or 10. I’m buying this hire and this program, and I feel even better about it coming out of Media Days and hearing from people in and around this team. If I asked you who’s the next coach in this league not named Kirby to win a natty, I’m sure Sark is high on a lot of people’s list, but for me I’m going with the guy who started his career at Sioux Falls. Maybe that’s the hotter take. And finally …
10 - Texas, meet pressure
You wanted this, and now it’s here. Couldn’t have asked for better timing, obviously - coming off the Longhorn’s best season in nearly 15 years - but this isn’t the Big 12. I believe in Sark and the talent that’s been assembled in Austin, but one season does not make a program make. Now it’s about sustaining. I think it’s going to make for tremendous theatre; Red River, hosting Georgia this season, bringing back the A&M rivalry, all of it is going to be amazing to watch. But the expectation now, especially in light of winning 12 games last season, is to keep winning. That’s a lot easier said than done in the toughest conference in America. Are we sure Texas is back? I’m not asking because I know the answer, I’m asking because it’s a fun question to pose. We’re going to learn so much about this program in the next couple of seasons, and as a fan of the sport I’m stoked to see it. I’m also grateful that I have zero emotional attachment to the outcome, good or bad.
Thanks for reading. Didn’t intend for it to be 2000 words! Drop me a line with your thoughts.